Guaranteed Cappers
Sean Murphy |
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Sean has been handicapping professionally since 2003 and at SportsCapping since 2016. Check out his track record for yourself and see why so many clients are putting his 20+ years of experience to work for them! |
FREE PICKS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 02, 2024 Guardians vs. Astros |
Total 9½ -105 at YOUWAGER |
in 3h |
Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams last night but I look for a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale. Each of the first two games of this series have gone to extra innings and both clubs might need to patch things together in the later innings with closer Emmanuel Clase having worked the last two nights for the Guardians and Ryan Pressly having done the same for the Astros. The starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired with Logan Allen taking the ball for Cleveland and rookie Spencer Arrighetti going for Houston. Note that Allen owns a 5.12 FIP and 1.40 WHIP in six starts this season. Current Astros have gone 7-for-16 off of the left-hander with four of those hits going for extra bases. Note that Houston checks in ranked best in the majors in home OPS this season and eighth in OPS vs. left-handers. Arrighetti remains in the Astros starting rotation out of necessity only due to a number of key injuries. He has logged a 3.79 FIP and 2.34 WHIP in three big league starts this season. The Guardians rank inside baseball's top-10 in OPS in night games and a respectable 13th in road OPS. The Astros bullpen entered last night's action sporting a 4.90 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with only two saves converted and seven blown this season. Take the over. |
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 01, 2024 Pirates vs A's |
UNDER 8 -115 |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Top Premium | ||
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks as the Pirates and A's wrap up their Interleague series in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. The Pirates check in last in the majors in OPS over the last seven days. Meanwhile, Oakland, while enjoying a bit of an offensive surge of late, ranks 28th in baseball in OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. Quinn Priester will get the start for Pittsburgh. His ground-ball numbers have been off the charts this season. Oddly enough home runs have been an issue but that should be negated by pitching at cavernous Oakland Coliseum (with no current A's hitter having seen him before). Ross Stripling checks in with a respectable 3.54 FIP on the season. Noting that the Pirates rank 29th in baseball in OPS vs. righties there's a path for continued success from Stripling here. Current Pirates hitters are 12-for-39 against him but only Andrew McCutchen has enjoyed considerable success (6-for-11). Keep in mind McCutchen is hitting .190 this season. The A's bullpen has quietly been among the best in baseball this season with a collective 2.51 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Pittsburgh's staff hasn't been quite as reliable in the later innings but again the matchup helps in this case. Take the under (10*). |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NBA | May 01, 2024 Heat vs Celtics |
Heat +14½ -115 at Mirage |
Lost $115.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Celtics are coming off consecutive wins (and covers) in Miami to take over this series and push the Heat to the brink of elimination on Wednesday. It is worth noting that Boston is playing with a rather small margin for error from a pointspread perspective at least as it has gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in all four games in this series and has yet to make good on 40 or more field goals. Miami has of course been awful offensively save for Game 2. Note that the Heat are 14-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons and 4-2 ATS in that situation this season. They're also 31-16 ATS in their last 47 contests when playing with double-revenge including a 7-4 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 101-107 ATS after holding the opposition to 90 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, including an 0-3 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Here, Boston will be looking to secure a third straight ATS victory over Miami but hasn't accomplished that feat over the last 16 meetings in the series. Take Miami (8*). |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 01, 2024 Braves vs Mariners |
UNDER 7½ -110 |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Seattle at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are riding identical eight-game 'under' streaks and I'm expecting more of the same in Wednesday's series finale. The Braves and Mariners rank 27th and 29th respectively in OPS over the last seven days. Left-hander Chris Sale will get the start for Atlanta on Wednesday and the Mariners rank 27th in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws this season. Current Seattle hitters are a combined 4-for-25 off of Sale with just one extra-base hit. Keep in mind, Sale is enjoying a resurgence this season having posted a 3.48 FIP and 0.92 WHIP through five starts. Emerson Hancock may be thought of as one of the weaker links in a stellar Mariners starting rotation. He's fared just fine in all but one of his five starts this season, however. Note that Hancock has kept the line moving for the M's lately, working exactly six innings while allowing two earned runs or less in three straight starts. The two bullpens have been among the best in baseball this season. The Mariners 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.42 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with seven saves converted and only one blown. Take the under (8*). |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 01, 2024 Nationals vs Rangers |
Nationals +154 at Ace |
Won $154 |
Play Type: Free | ||
Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Washington over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals had their four-game winning streak snapped in resounding fashion last night as the Rangers rolled to a 7-1 victory in the series-opener. I look for Washington to bounce back on Wednesday as it sends Trevor Williams to the hill against Andrew Heaney in a battle of journeyman starters. Say what you will about Williams and how he has fared in recent years but he's been incredibly effective this season logging a 2.64 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in five starts. Current Rangers hitters are a combined 13-for-53 with only one home run off of Williams. Heaney continues to struggle for the Rangers with a FIP well north of five and a WHIP approaching 1.30. In limited action, current Nationals hitters have given Heaney plenty of trouble going a combined 8-for-19 with seven of those hits going for extra bases. While it's true the Rangers bullpen has performed better lately, there's no real advantage on the mound in the later innings. Take Washington. |
PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 02, 2024 Cubs vs Mets |
UNDER 8½ -119 | |
Play Type: Premium | ||
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. This series has been as low-scoring as expected and I look for more of the same in Thursday's series-finale in Queens. Rookie Ben Brown will get the start for Chicago. He's impressed so far, logging a 3.14 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in three big league starts. He draws a favorable matchup here with the Mets ranking 26th in the majors in home OPS and 25th in OPS over the last seven days. Adrian Houser will counter for New York. The Mets haven't hesitated to lift him from games early should he struggle. I certainly don't think he's as bad as he's shown in his last two outings. Current Cubs hitters are 12-for-50 off off Houser with only two extra-base hits. Of note, Ian Happ has worn him out going 4-for-11 with four RBI (the only RBI the current Cubs roster have racked up against him). Again, we're talking about minimal damage with Happ recording the Cubs only two extra-base hits off of Houser (both doubles). The Cubs check in ranked 29th in baseball in OPS over the last seven days and 25th in road OPS this season. Keep in mind, the Mets sport one of baseball's best bullpens so far this season, entering last night's action with a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Take the under (8*). |
SERVICE BIO |
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Sean Murphy made his professional debut as lead handicapper for Pat Miller Sports in 2003, continuing on with The Miller Group from 2006 through 2009. Sean broke away to found his own sports service in September 2009 and has now delivered 12 of 17 winning NFL seasons. Sean’s also cashed big in NCAA Football, as he’s won each of the last 3 seasons, recording wins with 57% of his overall bets. A key factor in Sean’s success is his knack for Over/Unders, which is no surprise given Sean’s reputation as a ‘numbers guru.’ Indeed, Sean’s knack for handling numbers is deep-rooted. He owns a business degree, with a major in finance, and is a member of the prestigious Beta Gamma Sigma honor society for business students and scholars. Although Sean took a circuitous route to become a professional handicapper, sports betting has been a part of his life for as long as he can remember. In fact, he still fondly recalls his first successful venture into sports betting – a winning three-game NFL ‘Pro-Line’ parlay (offered by the Canadian lottery) when he was just 12 years old. Sean — along with the rest of his 7th grade class — was hooked. His passion for sports is unmatched. The phrase “find something you love to do and you’ll never ‘work’ a day in your life” is Murph's mantra. Sean's love for numbers, combined with his passion for sports, makes a career in sports handicapping the perfect fit. After building The Miller Group from the ground up, and turning it into one of America’s most respected handicapping services, Sean has continued to prosper as an independent, thanks to an honest approach and strong belief in delivering value to the customer. Sean’s selections are based on his extensive knowledge of the game, and his approach is both situational and statistical. He prides himself on going against the majority and thinking outside the box, and his unique analysis keeps his clients coming back. When you purchase one of Sean’s selections, you can always count on insightful and expert information to back it up. Sean rates all of his plays from 8* to 10* with free plays qualifying as 8* releases, and the majority of his selections warranting a 10* designation. As you would expect, the higher the rating, the stronger the play. |